The field

The state of quantum computing, with receipts

Same rule as the research wing: nothing is asserted that a reader can't open. Every card carries a status — a published result is not a vendor announcement is not a roadmap is not an opinion — and the date of the underlying document. Last checked 2026-08-21.

  • Verified — published result
  • Vendor-reported result
  • Projection — roadmap target
  • Opinion — named, dated
  • Estimate — with caveats
  • Contested — disputed in the record
  • Preprint — not yet peer-reviewed

Where the hardware actually is

  • ✓ achievedBelow-threshold error correctionGoogle Willow (Nature, 2025); Harvard/QuEra 448-atom architecture (Nature, 2026).
  • ✓ achievedLogical qubits beating physical qubitsMicrosoft/Quantinuum 800× (2024); Willow memory 2.4× beyond break-even (2025); Helios (2025).
  • ✗ not yetA fault-tolerant machine solving useful problemsNot achieved as of 2026-08-21. Every vendor target above is dated 2027 or later.